1. Comprehensive changes in the market
This week, the titanium metal market showed a distinct differentiation pattern of "high-end leading the rise, low-end and medium-end downturn".
Due to the dual impact of the supply cut of Ukrainian titanium ore (global monthly gap of 50,000 tons) and the Baoji Titanium Valley International Titanium Industry Expo (held from April 22 to 26), orders in the high-end field surged, but civil and traditional industrial demand continued to be weak.
During the Baoji Titanium Expo, six leading sponge titanium companies reported full orders and no spot inventory. Domestic sponge titanium inventory dropped from 45,000 tons in October last year to 14,000 tons, and the destocking effect was significant. According to [BAOJI MEDITI] forecast, after the end of the exhibition, the price of sponge titanium may rise by another 2,000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of grade 0 and grade 1 may exceed 53,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, which is further beneficial to the upstream rutile market.
2. Analysis of data in sub-sectors
① Titanium sponge Price trend: The mainstream price of grade 0 is 52,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, and the price of grade 1 is 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton. The quotations of enterprises such as Yunnan Guoti have been raised to 53,000 to 54,000 yuan/ton. The market is bullish and the price may rise by another 2,000 yuan/ton.
Capacity dynamics: The production rate of Panzhihua Iron and Steel's 35,000-ton expansion project has exceeded 95%, and the total capacity has exceeded 60,000 tons/year, but the suspension of mining in the Velta mine in Ukraine has aggravated the tension on the raw material side.
② Titanium and titanium alloy ingots Demand differentiation: The price of TA1 civilian-grade ingots remained unchanged at 60,000 yuan/ton, and the price of TC4 aviation-grade ingots rose by 2% to 67,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton due to a 1055% surge in deep-sea equipment orders.
Technological breakthrough: ZTi700SR high-temperature titanium alloy (resistant to 600℃) is mass-produced to fill the domestic gap and has been used in the hot end components of aviation engines.
③Titanium slabs/strips Exports are blocked: The EU's 25% tariff has caused the European market share to shrink by 15%, and companies have turned to OEM processing in Southeast Asia. Orders for titanium foil for hydrogen energy (thickness ≤ 0.05mm) have increased by 25% month-on-month.
④Titanium bars and wires Medical demand is strong: TC4 orthopedic implant bars maintain a high price of 240-280 yuan/kg, and domestic procurement volume has increased by 8% year-on-year; orders for titanium alloy wires for consumer electronics have fallen by 15%, and companies have turned to energy storage equipment.
⑤Titanium pipes Inventory pressure: Industrial seamless pipe inventory increased by 5% month-on-month, mainly due to the postponement of chemical projects (accounting for 40% of demand); the cost of domestic ultra-long titanium pipes (single ≥ 20 meters) is 18% lower than that of imports, promoting the replacement of oil and gas pipelines.
⑥Titanium powder Technological breakthrough: The production capacity of domestic low-oxygen sponge titanium powder (oxygen content ≤ 1200ppm) has increased, and the price has dropped to 380-420 yuan/kg. The US's 34% tariff has caused exports to return to zero, and companies have turned to the aerospace and nuclear energy fields.
3. Summary of major news this week
①Geopolitical conflict and capacity expansion: Ukraine's Velta mining suspension has widened the titanium ore gap, and Panzhihua Iron and Steel has become the world's largest single titanium sponge base, filling the monthly gap of 50,000 tons.
②Baoji Titanium Expo signed contracts worth over 10 billion yuan: The "2024 China Titanium Industry Development Report" was released on the first day of the exhibition, and 31 aerospace and hydrogen energy projects were signed to promote the high-end upgrading of the industrial chain.
③ Explosion of 3C electronic demand: Xiaomi, Honor and other manufacturers launched titanium alloy mobile phone frames, and the market size is expected to reach 43.2 billion yuan in 2027. CATL has locked in an annual agreement for ultra-thin titanium strips.
④Policy and tariff impact: The EU's additional tariffs on the United States indirectly impacted China's titanium plate exports, and the domestic sales price of titanium dioxide fell to 14,400 yuan/ton, and some companies lost more than 1,000 yuan per ton.
4.Forecast of market changes next week
①Titanium ore prices lead the rise: Due to the rainy season in Myanmar and the supply cut in Ukraine, the price of 46% titanium ore in Panzhihua may exceed 2,400 yuan/ton, further rising from the current 2,350 yuan.
②Sponge titanium prices are expected to rise: [Titanium Home] predicts that the price may rise by another 2,000 yuan/ton after the Baoji exhibition. Supported by high-end demand, the transaction price of grade 0 and grade 1 may reach 53,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton.
③High-end titanium materials continue to strengthen: The orders for aviation and deep-sea equipment are increasing, and the price of TC4 alloy may rise by another 1 to 2%. The growth in demand for titanium alloy 3D printing drives the titanium powder market.
④Transformation of export structure: The domestic sales price of titanium dioxide may fall below 18,000 yuan/ton, and enterprises are accelerating the layout of Southeast Asian OEM exports and African new energy markets.
5. Comprehensive summary
This week, the titanium market accelerated differentiation under the dual drive of "geopolitical conflict + domestic demand upgrade": the tightness of the raw material end pushed up the cost, and the high-end field (military industry, aviation, 3C electronics) became the core growth pole. Baoji Titanium Expo further consolidated China's leading position in the global titanium industry chain through the signing of tens of billions of projects and technology releases. In the future, industry competition will focus on the three main lines of "high-end + low carbon + 3D printing", and the penetration rate of titanium materials in consumer electronics may reshape the market structure.
